How far the open-weight frontier trails the overall frontier
Largest training run to date, all models against open-weight models. 8 months between the overall frontier reaching 3.8e25 FLOP and an open-weight model doing so. Notable AI Models Epoch AI Inclusion is editorial ("notability criteria"), not exhaustive. Compute figures are frequently estimates; check the per-row confidence and notes columns before treating any value as measured. Cite Epoch AI, "Notable AI Models". https://epoch.ai/data/ai-models. Retrieved 28 October 2026 via AI Safety Tracker, https://aisafetytracker.org/figures/.
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<a href="https://aisafetytracker.org/capability/#open-weights"><img src="https://aisafetytracker.org/embed/open-weight-lag.svg" alt="Step chart of the largest training run to date for all AI models against open-weight models, with the lag between them in months, from AI Safety Tracker" width="948" height="502" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%;height:auto"></a>